The Grass Does Look Greener: We project poorly. For example, only 40% of redeemable coupons are ever cashed in. People who moved out of California for whatever reason moved back at over a 50% rate, finding out that things elsewhere didn’t give them what they had expected. Here’s a reverse prediction that got my attention: Among extreme quadriplegics, 93% were glad to be alive and 84% considered their lives average or above average. Finally, we tend to give too much credence to things easily observed…especially in complex situations.